All graphs and tables are calculated at 10:30 AM/PM from data downloaded from COVID-19 in Iowa.
I stream all data analysis and updating live on Twitch starting at 10:15 AM/PM everyday.

Graphed Infections Since 05/15/2020

These infections have been calculated from the State of Iowa’s official data. Actual levels of infection are likely considerably higher, based on positivity values in each county and statewide. The Director of the CDC, Dr Robert Redfield, has stated that viral prevalence is reasonably 10 times higher than what has been revealed through testing.

% Iowans Infected by Day

This percentage is based on the number of active infections out of all Iowans.

12-Hour Values

Cumulative Values

According to the World Health Organization, countries/states/counties with extensive testing should be at a positivity of 5% or lower. A high positivity rate means that testing is revealing predominantly symptomatic positives and might be missing asymptomatic/subclinical positives. Positivity over a 12-hour period should return a similar positivity percentage, provided that enough testing is being done everyday.

Case Fatality Rate

Hospitalizations by Day

This data is sourced from COVID-19 in Iowa in the PDF available below the graphs and table on the first page. It is normally out-dated by at least 2-4 days and is only updated by the state a few days each week. Unfortunately, the data is not as complete as Iowans deserve on the county level.

24-Hour Positivity

State positivity percentages over any given 24-hour period will fluctuate.. This effect is smoothed out by doing an average positivity calculation to see what trend line appears.

14-Day Rolling Average Positivity

There is a large disparity between how the State of Iowa and how I arrive at the 14-day average positivity. The State appears to be doing two things: (1) back-dating positives to outside the 14-day window and (2) calculating daily positivity, then using those simple calculations to create an average of averages, as reported by the Telegraph Herald in Dubuque, IA. On COVID-19 in Iowa, the State of Iowa claims that the 14-day positivity is 14-day positives divided by 14-day tests. At this point, it is unclear how the State calculates positivity. This will likely bear out in time and may result in both the State’s and my calculations to converge.

I report positivity based on when positives and tests are reported to the Iowan public. I calculate the sums of both positives and tests prior to division in order to arrive at the positivity percentage. This is the correct way to see what the average of the prior 14 days is.

The first set of percentages are my calculations, based on the data released by the State of Iowa in the previous 14 days. The second set of percentages are what the State of Iowa claims the 14-day average positivity is, based on either an average of averages or 14-day positives divided by 14-day tests.

Iowa Department of Education Guidance

None to Minimal Community Transmission (0-5% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity):
At this level, schools are asked to continue on-site learning following public health guidance, or hybrid learning as necessary based on parent preference and student quarantine.

Minimal to Moderate Community Transmission (6-14% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity):
At this level, schools are asked to continue on-site learning following public health guidance, or hybrid learning as necessary based on parent preference and student quarantine, and limit some interactions. 

Iowa Department of Education Guidance

Substantial Controlled Community Transmission (15-20% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity):
Schools are asked to follow hybrid learning plans as necessary based on parent preference and student quarantine. Schools that also have 10% absenteeism among students can request the Department of Education to transition to continuous remote learning for up to 14 days.

Substantial Uncontrolled Community Transmission (>20% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity): 
Schools can request the Department of Education to transition to continuous remote learning for up to 14 days.

24-Hour Positives

24-Hour Recoveries

24-Hour Deaths

24-Hour Tests

Weekly Positives

Weekly Recoveries

Weekly Deaths

Weekly Tests

Cumulative Positives

Cumulative Recoveries

Cumulative Deaths

Cumulative Tests

Cumulative Positives & Cumulative Negatives

% Change

Influenza/Pneumonia vs COVID-19 Deaths

The CDC released more weekly data on 08/12/2020. Iowa, at that time, has reported deaths for COVID-19 through 08/01/2020. Whenever that data is sent to and processed by the CDC, I will update these values and this graph.

All Causes Deaths 2015-2020 by Month

While cumulative monthly deaths from all causes in 2020 were similar for January/February/March to previous years, the disparity between expected death levels and death levels during the COVID-19 pandemic became apparent in May 2020. This will unfortunately continue to be the case until we have a safe, effective, and widely-utilized vaccine.

All Causes 2015-2020

COVID-19 Deaths in Iowa (All Causes)

The underlying cause of death is a subset of multiple causes. Iowa is reporting confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the CDC with a lag time of about 3 weeks.

Iowa Deaths: ILI/Pneumonia (All Types) vs ILI/Pneumonia (Only Viral) 2015-2018

Deaths from influenza-like illness and pneumonia are split into all types and viral only. Deaths from viral ILI and pneumonia are a subset of all ILI/pneumonia deaths, just as natural cause deaths are a subset of all cause deaths.