Demographics & COVID-19


These graphs and charts are updated once daily around 12:30PM.
This data is calculated based on percentages provided by the State of Iowa, coupled with whole values of positives/recoveries/deaths.
It is not suggested that we take this data at face value, more as a trend over time with regard to each demographic group.

Graphs with large variations in slope for positives are due to the fact that the State of Iowa only provides whole number percentages for the reverse calculation of probable positives.

This will be especially evident for race, biological sex, and ethnicity.
Note: All values are calculated based on reported percentages from COVID-19 in Iowa, in concert with Case Fatality Rates from Our World in Data and the CDC. The values are subject to change in the future.

Cumulative Positives by Age Groups
Cumulative Recoveries by Age Groups
Cumulative Deaths by Age Groups

Kids & Teens: Positives, Recoveries, & Deaths

Note: I have set the scaling for kid/teen deaths based off the world CFRs for kids/teens on Our World in Data, which averaged at 0.1% across 0-9 and 10-19 age groups. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 5 kid/teen deaths out of 5,000 positives.

Adults: Positives, Recoveries, & Deaths

Note: I have set the scaling for adult deaths based off the world CFRs for adults on Our World in Data, which averaged at 0.26% across 20-29 and 30-39 age groups. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 125 adult deaths out of 48,000 positives.

Middle Age Adults: Positives, Recoveries, & Deaths

Note: I project that middle age adults will comprise approximately 31,000 positives by 100,000 total positives – provided that middle age adults have behavior similar to March 2020 through June 2020. This value may change sooner or later, based on social modifications and structural changes during the pandemic.

Older Adults: Positives, Recoveries, & Deaths

Note: I have set the scaling for older adult deaths based off the world CFRs for older adults on Our World in Data, which averaged at 8.20% across 60-69 and 70-79 years old. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 990 older adult deaths out of 12,000 positives.

Elderly Adults: Positives, Recoveries, & Deaths

Note: I have set the scaling for elderly adult deaths based off the world CFRs for older adults on Our World in Data, which averaged at 20.20% among 81+ in Italy. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 800 elderly deaths out of 3,900 positives.

Biological Sex


Women

Note: I have set the scaling for deaths of women based off the calculated case fatality rates for women in South Korea during their first wave, which has been calculated to 1.4%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 700 women die out of 50,000 positives.

Men

Note: I have set the scaling for deaths of men based off the calculated case fatality rates for men in South Korea during their first wave, which has been calculated to 2.1%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 1050 men die out of 50,000 positives.

Race


American Indians

Note: I have set the scaling for American Indian deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for American Indians in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 3.38%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 38 American Indians die out of 1,000 positives.

Asians

Note: I have set the scaling for Asian deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for Asians in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 1.64%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 120 Asians die out of 1,000 positives.

Blacks

Note: I have set the scaling for Black deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for Blacks in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 1.74%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 175 Blacks die out of 10,000 positives.

Native Hawaiians & Polynesians

Note: I have set the scaling for Native Hawaiian and Polynesian deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for Native Hawaiians and Polynesians in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 4.94%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 50 Native Hawaiians and Polynesians die out of 1,000 positives.

Other Races

Note: I have set the scaling for Other Race deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for those of Other Races in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 1.61%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 20 members of Other Races die out of 1,000 positives.

Whites

Note: I have set the scaling for White deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for Whites in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 4.47%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 2900 members of Other Races die out of 63,000 positives.

Ethnicity


Latinx

Note: I have set the scaling for Latinx deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for Latinx in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 0.89%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 240 Latinx die out of 26,000 positives.

Not Latinx

Note: I have set the scaling for non-Latinx deaths based off the calculated case fatality rates for non-Latinx in Iowa thus far, which has been calculated to 4.94%. This means, statistically, Iowa should not have more than 3,700 non-Latinx die out of 76,000 positives.

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