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Infectious Disease Modeling

I am usingĀ Omni Calculator to simulate potential increased spread in our communities. I have calculated percentages for susceptible, infected, and recovered and have included population counts for each county. By plugging these numbers into the calculator, you will be able to see what I foresee happening in situations involving current active positives, 5x current active positives, and 10x active positives. For areas with less dense populations, current active positives are most realistic. For areas with metro areas, 5x or 10x are more realistic – especially if we base our models on the early results from Indiana’s randomized COVID+ sampling in April.

wdt_ID Date County Popoulation 2019 Infected% Recovered% Susceptibility% (Infected) Susceptibility% (5x Infected) Susceptibility% (10x Infected)
1 06/30/2020 Adair 7,152 0.06 0.15 99.79 98.95 97.90
2 06/30/2020 Adams 3,602 0.00 0.22 99.78 98.89 97.78
3 06/30/2020 Allamakee 13,687 0.06 0.84 99.10 95.51 91.01
4 06/30/2020 Appanoose 12,426 0.02 0.14 99.84 99.20 98.39
5 06/30/2020 Audubon 5,496 0.04 0.27 99.69 98.45 96.91
6 06/30/2020 Benton 25,645 0.06 0.17 99.77 98.87 97.74
7 06/30/2020 Black Hawk 131,228 0.23 1.36 98.41 92.04 84.07
8 06/30/2020 Boone 26,234 0.13 0.39 99.49 97.43 94.85
9 06/30/2020 Bremer 25,062 0.04 0.31 99.65 98.26 96.53
10 06/30/2020 Buchanan 21,175 0.06 0.16 99.79 98.94 97.87
Date County Popoulation 2019 Infected% Recovered% Susceptibility% (Infected) Susceptibility% (5x Infected) Susceptibility% (10x Infected)
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