Page County

Population: 15107

All graphs and tables are calculated at 10:30 AM/PM from data downloaded from COVID-19 in Iowa.
I stream all data analysis and updating live on Twitch starting at 10:15 AM/PM everyday.

Active Infections

Graphed Infections Since 05/15/2020
These infections have been calculated from the State of Iowa’s official data. Actual levels of infection are considerably higher, based on positivity values in each county and statewide. The Director of the CDC, Dr Robert Redfield, has stated that viral prevalence is reasonably 10 times higher than what has been revealed through testing.
% Iowans Infected by Day
This percentage is based on the number of active infections out of all residents of Page.

Snapshot Statistics

24-Hour Values
Cumulative Values
According to the World Health Organization, countries/states/counties with extensive testing should be at a positivity of 5% or lower. A high positivity rate means that testing is revealing predominantly symptomatic positives and might be missing asymptomatic/subclinical positives. Positivity over a 12-hour period should return a similar positivity percentage, provided that enough testing is being done everyday.
Case Fatality Rate
Hospitalizations by Day
This data is sourced from COVID-19 in Iowa in the PDF available below the graphs and table on the first page. It is normally out-dated by at least 2-4 days and is only updated by the state a few days each week. Unfortunately, the data is not as complete as Iowans deserve on the county level.

County Positivity

24-Hour Positivity
County positivity percentages over any given 24-hour period will fluctuate wildly in most counties. This effect is smoothed out by doing an average positivity calculation to see what trend line appears.
14-Day Rolling Average Positivity
There is a large disparity between how the State of Iowa and how I arrive at the 14-day average positivity. The State appears to be doing two things: (1) back-dating positives to outside the 14-day window and (2) calculating daily positivity, then using those simple calculations to create an average of averages, as reported by the Telegraph Herald in Dubuque, IA. On COVID-19 in Iowa, the State of Iowa claims that the 14-day positivity is 14-day positives divided by 14-day tests. At this point, it is unclear how the State calculates positivity. This will likely bear out in time and may result in both the State’s and my calculations to converge.

I report positivity based on when positives and tests are reported to the Iowan public. I calculate the sums of both positives and tests prior to division in order to arrive at the positivity percentage. This is the correct way to see what the average of the prior 14 days is.

The first set of percentages are my calculations, based on the data released by the State of Iowa in the previous 14 days. The second set of percentages are what the State of Iowa claims the 14-day average positivity is, based on either an average of averages or 14-day positives divided by 14-day tests.

Iowa Department of Education Guidance

None to Minimal Community Transmission (0-5% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity):
At this level, schools are asked to continue on-site learning following public health guidance, or hybrid learning as necessary based on parent preference and student quarantine.

Minimal to Moderate Community Transmission (6-14% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity):
At this level, schools are asked to continue on-site learning following public health guidance, or hybrid learning as necessary based on parent preference and student quarantine, and limit some interactions. 
Iowa Department of Education Guidance

Substantial Controlled Community Transmission (15-20% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity):
Schools are asked to follow hybrid learning plans as necessary based on parent preference and student quarantine. Schools that also have 10% absenteeism among students can request the Department of Education to transition to continuous remote learning for up to 14 days.

Substantial Uncontrolled Community Transmission (>20% 14-Day Rolling Average Positivity): 
Schools can request the Department of Education to transition to continuous remote learning for up to 14 days.

24-Hour Graphs

24-Hour Positives
24-Hour Recoveries
24-Hour Deaths
24-Hour Tests
Positives and deaths have been tracked since 3/8/2020, as they have been publicly available for the whole pandemic thus far.
Recoveries and tests became available at the county-level on 5/16/2020.

Cumulative Graphs

Cumulative Positives
Cumulative Recoveries
Cumulative Deaths
Cumulative Tests
Positives and deaths have been tracked since 3/8/2020, as they have been publicly available for the whole pandemic thus far.
Recoveries and tests became available at the county-level on 5/16/2020.

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